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Dirty Oil: a new film about tar sands from the Co-op

Alberta, Canada: before and after tar sands extraction

Before and after - from boreal forest to strip mining, that's tar sands.

Oil is rubbish. I mean, obviously it's been great - you know, they way that it underpins what we call 'advanced industrial civilisation' - that we can make it into petrol, plastic, pharmaceuticals, fertiliser. That's obviously brilliant, because in my opinion all that stuff has (by and large) been great. But now that we've got better, cleaner and smarter ways to power our cities, run our cars and heat our homes forgive me if I find the black stuff a bit... last century. Read more »

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BP ditches support for climate bill

Greenpeace on Mount Rushmore

We called for strong climate action from the US. But support for the proposed climate bill is being undermined by BP.

It's not perhaps the most surprising of news, but it is worth noting. BP USA has quit a leading business coalition that's been lobbying for a climate bill to cut carbon emissions in the states.

You can be sure that what goes on in the States will have been approved from the London office, where over the past few years BP have been working hard to create the impression of a company that has moved away from fossil fuels. So does this move mark an admission of oily business-as-usual from the company that claims it is "beyond petroleum"? Read more »

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Clouds on the horizon for tar sands?

Alberta, Canada: before and after tar sands extraction

Canada before and after tar sands extraction. Producing tar sands oil is also at least three time more carbon intensive than making normal crude.

Some dirty oil news bubbled up over the weekend, as big oil companies including Shell and BP mobilise to try and stop tar sands oil being banned from the sixth largest economy in the world.

That would be California, personal fiefdom of 'surprisingly green governor' Arnie Schwarznegger. In an effort to cut vehicle emissions 10 per cent by 2020, he has brought in laws that require a cut in the carbon content of fuels sold in the state. "Our cars have been running on dirty fuel for too long," intoned Arnie, in his rich Austrian accent.

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The turf is always greener on the other side

Astroturfing
'Money can't buy me love' sang the Beatles. Well, someone needs to tell the big oil companies, because the word of the week in the Greenpeace office is 'astroturfing'. Image: limonada on flickr

The American Petroleum Institute is the kind of friendly industry body that lobbies for 'big oil', and has no trouble inspiring grassroots action. The trouble is, from their point of view, it's the wrong kind.

For the oil companies, it must be incredibly tedious to have masses of engaged citizens fired up about the way you're trashing the planet - camping out on your lawn, organising rallies, chaining themselves to your office, asking pointed questions to politicians. How irritating that there are people who think you're so wrong they'll actually get out onto the streets and protest about it! It sucks to be on the wrong side of history.

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Shell’s quarterly profits tank by 70%, Exxon's by 66%, BP's by 50%

Climate change powered by BP, Exxon, Shell 2

It's big energy money week! Get your annual financial thrills as the big international oil companies - Shell, BP, ExxonMobil and the rest - publish their quarterly financial reports results this week, all at once!

And if you like a gory financial thriller, they promise to be quite a good read, because profits are tanking. Take Shell, for example. When your quarterly profits fall by 70% in one year, you know something's gone a bit wrong. ExxonMobil's are down by 66%. BP's profits have more than halved. The global economic downturn is kicking in. Read more »

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Shifting Sands: Greenpeace report reckons we’ve hit peak oil (sort of)

pulling-oil-from-the-tar-sands.jpg

We know tar sands are destructive, bad for the climate, and expensive to exploit. But could they also be a colossal financial liability for BP and Shell?

If, in the runup to Copenhagen, you have a sneaking suspicion that world leaders might still be more attached to the realpolitik of energy than the green-tinged adoption of strong climate policy, a new report from Greenpeace, Platform and Oil Change International may provide a glimmer of hope.

The suspicion is that whatever grand statements are made by the Obamas, the Lulas or the Browns of the world as they thrash out their meta-climate policy at Copenhagen, for the moment they're going to remain much more motivated by ‘energy security' than greenhouse gas stabilization.

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Downward revision of oil demand forecasts increases risk for tar sands investments

New report increases pressure on BP and Shell as oil majors prepare to post disappointing quarterly results
27 Jul 2009

A new analysis of oil demand forecasts from the world's leading energy agencies has uncovered a significant emerging risk for international oil companies investing in Canada's environmentally destructive tar sands. The report, entitled Shifting Sands, calls into question the long term profitability of unconventional oil assets due to major downward revisions of growth in global oil demand over the next decade.

The findings cast doubt on the long term investment strategies of oil majors BP and Shell in the same week that both are expected to post disappointing quarterly results - BP on Tuesday and Shell on Thursday. The report claims that Shell is uniquely exposed to oil price volatility, as over 30% of its oil resources are classified as unconventional, requiring a consistently high oil price to remain viable. It further questions whether the high oil prices needed to sustain tar sands production will ever be withstood by the economy.

The report, co-authored by PLATFORM, Greenpeace and Oil Change International points to a series of trends emerging from the growth forecasts of OPEC, the IEA and the EIA as evidence that the oil market could be undergoing a permanent structural shift.

The authors assert that previous oil demand growth forecasts have seriously underestimated the potential impacts of Government policies aimed at securing energy supplies, reducing price volatility and tackling climate change. This ‘triple crunch' of political imperatives has led to a widespread dampening of expectation among the world's leading energy analysts.

The report's main author, Lorne Stockman, commented:

"The investment risks associated with tar sands projects are increasing almost daily. The potential impact of major efficiency programmes on oil demand is only just being realised, as Governments around the world attempt to reduce price volatility, secure energy supplies and tackle climate change.

"Investors should be aware that the assumptions they made just one year ago could now be well out of date, and they should think carefully before committing to projects that require a consistently high oil price to break even."

OPEC has revised its 2025 oil demand forecast down by 12% within the past four years, while conceding that "there is probably a need to continue to revise projections downwards because policies are geared to reducing demand". (1) The IEA warns that "even under conditions of strong economic activity, greater efficiency advances could still result in lower oil demand growth."

The analysis also quotes a recent speech made by BP Chief Executive Tony Hayward, in which he declares that "BP is unlikely to sell more gasoline ever in the United States ...than it sold in the first half of 2008" (2). Hayward also draws attention to the increased elasticity of demand as high oil prices begin to affect consumer behaviour and vehicle efficiency legislation is passed in congress.

The report explains how the US has the potential to reduce its oil use by up to 10mb/d by 2030, mainly though the use of mandatory vehicle efficiency standards. China has introduced significant consumer incentives for smaller cars and is gearing its automotive industry towards the production of smaller, more efficient engines. The report also points out that the emerging economies are leading the world in the development of batteries and other low carbon technology.

For more information please contact the Greenpeace press office on 0207 865 8255

The report can be viewed at www.greenpeace.org.uk/shiftingsands

QUOTES:

Paul Monaghan, Head of Social Goals and Sustainability at The Co-operative Financial Services, said:

"With the emergence of low carbon fuel standards in Europe and California, legal proceedings being filed by Cree First Nations and an unstable economy, investors need to be fully aware that the business case for these toxic fuels is fragile.
"Relying on a high oil price, low carbon price and lack of intervention is not prudent. As this report clearly shows, new investment in tar sands could be a toxic investment"

James Marriott of Platform said:

"The forthcoming second quarter results are likely to show BP and Shell struggling to maintain production levels, and our report shows how the logic of looking to tar sands production as a route out of this conundrum is deeply flawed."

FOOTNOTES

(1) OPEC, World Oil Outlook, July 2009. p74.

(2) Tony Hayward, in response to questions at the launch of the BP Statistical Review of World Energy. 10 June 2009. View the webcast or download the audio file at: http://www.bp.com/iframe.do?categoryId=9024230&contentId=7044938

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Shifting Sands: How a changing economy could bury the tar sands industry

Publication Date: 
27 Jul 2009
Body: 

This report, co-authored by PLATFORM, Greenpeace and Oil Change International, points to a series of trends emerging from the growth forecasts of OPEC, the IEA and the EIA as evidence that the oil market could be undergoing a permanent structural shift.

The authors assert that previous oil demand growth forecasts have seriously underestimated the potential impacts of government policies aimed at securing energy supplies, reducing price volatility and tackling climate change. This ‘triple crunch’ of political imperatives has led to a widespread dampening of expectation among the world’s leading energy analysts.

Shifting Sands is the second update to the Rising Risks report.

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After 100 years, is BP going senile?

Alberta tar sands: an oily tailings lake filled with toxic water - so large it's visible from space

Getting to be 100 years old is a proud milestone, but it usually comes with some complications - which can include a loss of critical faculties. As BP directors and shareholders meet to celebrate the company's centenary in London this evening, they'd be well advised to seriously question whether BP's massive investment in Canadian tar sands (pictured here) is evidence of senility setting in.

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Tar sands investment and 'oil at any cost' threaten BP's future profitability

Alberta, Canada - contaminated water from tar sands oil production fills a 2 km wide 'tailings' pool

Alberta, Canada - contaminated water from tar sands oil production fills a 2 km wide 'tailings' pool © Greenpeace

Last month our Emerald Paintbrush award presented to BP highlighted how far the company, which previously styled itself as going 'beyond petroleum', has moved back to its traditional profit source at the expense of its alternative energy division, and most likely its long-term profitability.

Investors may have been patting themselves on the back yesterday as BP posted record profits for 2008, but they should be wary - a quick trawl through the figures reveals major flaws in the company's long term investment strategy. Massive profits during the first half of the year (when oil prices reached over $100 per barrel) were undermined by a collapse in the final quarter, when prices fell back to around $40 per barrel.

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